Forecasting Returns and Economic Activity The firm we are using
Forecasting Returns and Economic Activity The firm we are using is Disney. all data must be about Disney. Using monthly data, what is the relationship between your firm and economic activity?
Forecasting Returns and Economic Activity The firm we are using is Disney.
Forecasting Returns and Economic Activity
The firm we are using is Disney. all data must be about Disney
1) .Using monthly data, what is the relationship between your firm and economic activity?
Inflation, employment growth industrial production and unemployment?
Can they predict economic activity or does economic activity predict it? Use and discuss Granger Causality.
2) Forecast inflation using a distributed lag of unemployment. Forecast unemployment using a distributed lag of inflation. Discuss the regression.
Additionally, Forecast inflation using past lags and an ARDL model. Repeat for unemployment.
What is AIC? Does inflation granger cause unemployment?
Lastly, unemployment granger cause inflation?
More Details:
Assessing the current situation
In addition, an important starting point in the forecasting process is the re-assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy as a whole.
More so, here, a combination of model-based analyses and statistical indicator models play an important role in “setting the scene” at the start of each projection round.
Also, a first step is to look at the range of relevant new information since the last projections were produced.
such as changes in commodity prices (in particular the oil price),
exchange rates and interest rates, fiscal trends, the path of economic activity and other key variables
to see how the recent past has developed differently from what was previously expected.
Also, with this new information, and using the previous set of projections as a starting point.
The effects of the new elements and revised judgments are typically assessed on the basis of model simulations using the NIGEM global model and short-term indicator models.
Thus the likely impact of combined and individual changes in assumptions and new information on key aggregates can be assesse d in consistent fashion for each of the major economies and economic groupings.
Lastly, these results are mechanical and therefore intende d to be no more than a guide to the informed judgments of country and topic experts on the underlying “forces acting”.